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Keeb kwm tin nqi

Time : 2024-07-19

Tus nqi ntawm tin yog dominated los ntawm kev lag luam saw, thiab kev cuam tshuam ntawm cov khoom siv sab nraud ntawm tus nqi tin yog maj mam nce. Saib rov qab ntawm tus nqi sib txawv ntawm tin nyob rau hauv ob lub xyoos dhau los, peb nco ntsoov tias qhov nce thiab poob ntawm cov nqi tin yog ze ze rau kev nce thiab nqis ntawm lub voj voog semiconductor, uas qhia tau hais tias tus nqi ntawm cov tin ntau yam yav dhau los yog dominated. los ntawm kev thov. Thaum lub sij hawm booming kev loj hlob ntawm cov khoom hluav taws xob nyob rau hauv lub xyoo caum dhau los tau tsav txoj kev loj hlob ntawm tin xav tau, cov kev txwv nyob rau hauv cov khoom siv tau maj mam tshwm sim, thiab lub zog hnyav ntawm mov shocks ntawm tin nqi tau maj mam nce. Nyob rau hauv cov qauv txij li thaum pib ntawm 23, tau muaj ib tug tseem ceeb divergence ntawm lub semiconductor voj voog thiab tus qauv ntawm tin nqi, uas peb ntseeg hais tias yog vim li cas los ntawm cov khoom poob siab los ntawm lub sij hawm luv luv cia siab ntawm kev txwv rau mining nyob rau hauv Wa. Xeev thiab ob peb txoj haujlwm tshiab hauv 2-3 xyoos tom ntej. Saib ua ntej, peb cia siab tias qhov kev thov tin yuav nce mus ntxiv, thiab cov khoom siv nruj yuav tsum tau txhawb nqa tin nqe elasticity thiab txhawb kev nce siab ntawm tin nqi chaw.

 

Ua ntej xyoo 2000: Kev lag luam tin loj hlob qeeb, hloov ntawm tin plating mus rau solder noj. Qhov tshwm sim ntawm txhuas, yas, cov khoom ntim khoom sib xyaw tau ua rau qhov kev thov rau tin plating txuas ntxiv poob qis, thiab cov txheej nyias nyias ntawm cov tin txheej tau txo qhov kev noj ntawm cov tin, raws li qhov keeb kwm yav dhau los no, qhov kev faib ua feem ntawm kev noj thiab kev noj ntawm tin plating. tau maj mam txo. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, kev txhim kho ntawm kev lag luam hluav taws xob tau nce tsis tu ncua ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob siv hluav taws xob, thiab cov qauv siv tin tau maj mam hloov mus rau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob thiab cov tshuaj lom neeg.

2009-2012 cycle: Semiconductor ntim kho thiab tin mine mov nruj, tin nqi ntaus ib tug tshiab siab. Tom qab muaj teeb meem nyiaj txiag, txoj cai nyiaj txiag xoob ua ke nrog kev loj hlob ntawm cov xov tooj ntse, kev lag luam semiconductor sai kho qhov kev poob qis dhau los thiab ntim kev loj hlob, thiab qhov kev thov rau cov xov tooj txawb tau nce siab, thaum cov khoom siv ntawm cov mines txo qis, thiab qhov sib txawv. nruab nrab ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau nthuav dav los txhawb cov nqi tin nce 200%.

Hauv 2016-2018 lub voj voog, kev sib koom ua ke txo qis + kev thov rov qab los thawb tus nqi tin. Tom qab ib lub sij hawm ntawm ob peb xyoos, cov nplua tin ntau lawm nyob rau hauv 2014, lub semiconductor electronics kev lag luam tsim nyob rau hauv ib tug tsawg loj hlob tus nqi, thiab cov tin nqi retreated. Nrog rau kev poob qis hauv cov nqi tin rau ntau xyoo, hauv 2016 H1, cuaj lub tsev tin smelters sib koom ua ke txo cov khoom lag luam los ntawm 17,000 tons, Q3 cov neeg soj ntsuam ib puag ncig tau pib txwv kev tsim khoom, thiab kev thov hauv Q4 electronics teb pib rov qab los. Los ntawm nruab nrab-2018 mus txog rau thaum xaus ntawm 2019, cuam tshuam los ntawm Sino-US lag luam tsov rog, lub semiconductor electronics kev lag luam raws li ib tug tag nrho retreated, thiab tin nqi raws li.

Los ntawm 2020 mus rau tam sim no: tin ore thiab refined tin mov yog nruj, lub semiconductor kev lag luam rov qab mus rau boom, thiab ob npaug nias ntawm mov thiab thov ua rau cov tin nqi dheev ntaus ib tug tshiab siab dua. Tom qab 18-19 xyoo ntawm kev poob qis, txij li lub Cuaj Hlis 19, 14 lub tsev tin smelters tau sib koom ua ke txo cov khoom lag luam los ntawm 20,200 tons, thiab Indonesia Tianma tau txo cov khoom lag luam los ntawm 10,000 tons; Txij li xyoo 2020, COVID tau txhawb nqa qhov kev thov rau lub chaw ua haujlwm hauv tsev thiab tsav cov tin noj hauv cov khoom siv hluav taws xob. Kev xa khoom nruj ua ke nrog kev thov nce ntxiv, LME txuas ntxiv cov khoom lag luam qis ua rau cov nqi tin tau nce siab, nce mus txog qhov siab ntawm $ 45,105 / ton hauv ob xyoos txij lub Plaub Hlis 2020, nce ntau dua 200%. Nyob rau hauv 2022, nyob rau hauv cov xwm txheej ntawm tsis muaj zog thov nyob rau hauv feem ntau qhov kawg noj cheeb tsam tshwm sim los ntawm macro ib puag ncig ntawm Myanmar lub chaw cia dumping, tin stocks pib sau, thiab tin nqi sai sai retreated, nrog ib tug poob ntawm ntau tshaj 60% ntawm ncov thiab trough values.

 

Nyob rau hloov tawm: kawg qhov ntsuam thiab ntsuam lawv tau li cas yug, ntawd tin yog ib tug xovxwm tebchaws. Nyob rau lub tus 2-3 ny, npawv tsis muaj ntsuam thiab tin qho, muaj daim ntawv qhoos tin nyob rau hauv kho, qhov ntsuam thiab ntsuam lub tin thiab qho yim ua li cas sib hais, thiab qhov noog kev caij electronics thiab qhov ntsiab thiab qhov ntsuam yuav tsum ua hais li cas, qhov ntsuam thiab ntsuam yuav tsum ua hais li cas. ITA thiab qhov cas nyob rau hauv lub tin qho yuav tsum ua hais li cas, thiab ntawm lub tin qho yuav tsum ua hais li cas. Kuv mus ITA, qhov cas cash hauv lub tin qho nyob rau hauv rooj 50%, 75% thiab 90% nyob rau hauv 2022 yog US $11,418 / tawn, US $18,534 / tawn thiab US $23,171 / tawn, respectivly. Yog yuav tsum ua hais li cas, nyob rau hauv rooj 50%, 75% thiab 90% nyob rau hauv 2030 yog 16,625 US dollars/ton, 23,964 US dollars/ton, 36,290 US dollars/ton, respectivly.

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